Scotland‘s World Cup hopes are on the brink after finishing third in Group C following a 3-0 defeat to Brazil – and their fate is out of their hands with only the most improbable set of results on the final day of group stage games sending them through.
Steve Clarke’s side defeated Haiti in their opening match before a slim 1-0 loss to Morocco. A dispiriting defeat to Brazil left them with just three points and a goal difference of -3, as well as an agonising wait to determine if they’ll make it into the knockout rounds.
From 12 groups only the best eight third placed finishers will progress meaning Scotland need four teams to finish third with fewer than three points or a worse goal difference than them (-3) to qualify.
The Scots may not know their fate until the final group stage matches have been played meaning a wait until Sunday and the conclusion of Group J’s fixtures. But it’s been a bad start. South Africa’s victory over South Korea in Group A, Ecuador’s stunning triumph over Germany in Group E, plus Senegal’s huge win over Iraq in Group I have pushed Scotland closer to the edge, severely narrowing their route to the knockouts.
Senegal stormed past them with a 5-0 win ensuring a positive goal difference, while Iran also hold a zero goal difference to stand above Scotland. But Spain’s win over Uruguay in Group H gives the Tartan Army hope, even if Iran secured a point to get to three in Group G.
How can Scotland qualify for the knockout rounds?
Following their defeat to Brazil, Scotland’s progress to the next stage of the tournament – which would put them in the knockout rounds for the very first time – is out of their hands.
On the final day of the group-stage, Scotland need two results involving the teams currently above them in the third-place table to go their way: ie, Croatia losing heavily to Ghana and Algeria shipping several goals in a defeat to Austria so both of those teams drop below Scotland in the table on goal difference. Then, Scotland need DR Congo failing to win against Uzbekistan.
Here is how the third-placed sides currently stand:
Saturday 26 June
Fixtures
Croatia vs Ghana (Group L) – 10pm BST
Panama vs England (Group L) – 10pm BST
Colombia vs Portugal (Group K) – 12.30am BST
DR Congo vs Uzbekistan (Group K) – 12.30am BST
Algeria vs Austria (Group J) – 3am BST
Jordan vs Argentina (Group J) – 3am BST
What Scotland need:
In Group L, should Croatia earn a point or better against Ghana then the third-place finisher would have more points than Scotland and eliminate the Tartan Army. Scotland need Ghana to beat Croatia by three goals.
Group K sees DR Congo and Uzbekistan face off for third place. A draw would be ideal or a win for Uzbekistan by three or less goals, with the Asian side’s goal difference set at -7 after two games. If DR Congo win they will likely finish third with four points, as Portugal have a much better goal difference. Scotland need DR Congo to fail to win.
In Group J, Austria and Algeria sit second and third respectively and both have three points. Algeria have the worse goal difference heading into their meeting so Scotland need an Austria win, and by two goals or more. Alternatively, if Algeria win by four or more goals, it would leave Austria’s goal difference -4 or worse, which would elevate Scotland above them.
Here are the full group stage standings:
Who will Scotland play in the knockout rounds if they advance?
Scotland are almost certainly out now, but if they did squeeze through, then Group A winners Mexico in the last-32 in Mexico City would be their probable path.
